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- Games with big payoffs tend to have fewer small wins and longer stretches of losing. When calculating the size of your bankroll, also keep in mind that an average bet is not necessarily the lowest bet. For example, if you bet max credits on a 25-cent video poker machine, and you play single hands, then each bet is $1.25.
- Blackjack bet big or small Player Blackjacks are paid at the end of the round if the dealer does not have Blackjack.They need to be fair in administering such disputes by using the standard rules blackjack bet big or small of play.You win if it is a natural (7, 11) and lose if it is craps blackjack bet big or small (2, 3, 12).
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I have a mathematics/probability question or concern I want to run everyone.
There is a mathematical principle called the law of large numbers which basically states that given a large number of trials, the actual returns/results from a given bet should approach the calculated expected value.
what this means for any negative expectation game of chance, over the long run (many trials), you should lose, on average, an amount commensurate with the mathematically calculated expected value of a given bet type.
As a simple example, for a simple single unit craps pass line bet with no odds, the EV = ~ 0.98586. Or restated, the house edge is 1.41%.
What this means, in a truly random game of craps, is that if you made a large number of passline wagers over a long period of time, and no other bets, statistically, you should lose $1.41 for every $100 dollars wagered.
Now when people walk away winning a negative expectation wager, this is what mathematicians call 'Variance'.
Craps itself is a gambling game with a high variance. This is why you can experience 'winning streaks', 'losing streaks' and 'choppy tables' with regards to any given wager or combined group of wagers.
As a customer at a casino, variance is your friend, and the law of large numbers is the Casino's friend.
Here is my question: Given all of the above, is it 'better' to make a few very large wagers, accept the results (win or lose), and walk away, or is it better to make many smaller wagers?
I have asked this question on other forums, so I apologize to anyone who frequents multiple gambling discussion forums.
Here is my question: Given all of the above, is it 'better' to make a few very large wagers, accept the results (win or lose), and walk away, or is it better to make many smaller wagers?
If your sole goal is to win, then a few large wagers is superior to many small wagers. That's not my goal, especially when playing a negative EV game. I get in my car, drive 20 or so miles, and don't want to leave after three $1000 bets, win or lose. I want to enjoy the game, the chatter, the highs and lows, the drinks, the comped buffet, and spend some time there. If you have the money and can afford to lose those big bets, then the money you win from said bets should not make a difference for you either. If you are in some unique situation where you have $1000 but need $2000 to buy a pair of LaBoutin shoes, and the $1000 does you no good, then make 1 large bet. So it's either LaBoutin or barefoot.......
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TigerWuThere is a compromise, where you can have a good time, have a low expected hourly loss, and maximize your probability of winning. It’s called 100x odds.
Assuming you play until you either win enough (say, double) or lose, then betting smaller means the total amount you wager, on average, is going to be higher. This is true regardless of the game and whether it's positive or negative EV.
For example, with a $100 bankroll at a slot machine, if you shove a $100 bill into a $100 slot machine, you get one spin (and don't spin again if you win, cash out any win even a tie). If the house edge is 8%, you lose an average of $8. But if you shove the $100 bill into a quarter machine and sit there for a long time until it's all gone or you win the balance up to $200 (much more likely the former), by the time you either walk away a loser or cash out at least $200, you will have wagered an average of much more than $100... maybe $1,000. If you wager $1,000 at an 8% edge slot machine, you lose an average of $80. $80 out of your $100 bankroll is 80 percent! Holy cow, how did the $8 loss at the $100 machine turn into an $80 loss at the quarter machine with the same 8% house edge? It's because you re-wagered your bankroll over and over and over.
At a positive expected value game, this is what you want to do (the Kelly betting method, ideally). But at a negative EV game, the best way to double your money is to bet all or half of your bankroll.
Alternatively, you could count the number of bets you make and limit it to equal your bankroll. This can be done at a machine with the player's club card if the points formula isn't too complex. For example, if you get 1 point per dollar, with a $100 bankroll, keep hitting spin until the number of points is exactly 100 more than what you started with. At a table game this would be tougher but can be done (just count from 1 to n, easy!). For example, a $100 bankroll at craps wagered $5 at a time is fine as long as you make 20 bets, no more, no less.
For example, if you live 2 miles away from the casino, then the high variance hit-and-run aspect might be very appealing.
But if you’re someone like me, who has to drive for over an hour to get to a casino, or like I’m doing in 42 hours, jumping on a plane to go to Vegas, the hit-and-run is never an option.
On a sidenote, the first portion of your post was a little condescending. You’re on a gambling forum We know about high and low variance, house edge, “long run”, etc.
On a sidenote, the first portion of your post was a little condescending. You’re on a gambling forum We know about high and low variance, house edge, “long run”, etc.
DJTeddyBear- I apologize, it was not my intention to be condescending. I was trying to establish for forum members that I understood the basic mathematics of casino gambling before posing my question. Sometimes, extra exposition/background information as I wrote is unnecessary.
As far as my gambling goals/motivations: I guess they vary depending on the circumstances of a casino visit. The closest casino to my home is 1 hour 20 minutes. In that situation, I don't want to invest the time, energy, and gasoline to travel to that venue, only to play a single 'double or nothing' even money, full bankroll wager.. In that situation, since its my 'home casino', I'd be interested in accumulating tier credits/points/comps.
On the other hand, I only get out to Vegas once a year, if I am lucky..and its always on business. I don't feel the need to accumulate tier points with a casino operator that has no east-coast venues. I'd be willing to 'stretch out' my gambling sessions at a Cesar's or MGM property because I have more than one opportunity to redeem comps per year. But It doesn't make sense for me to 'stretch out' table-time at a Binion property, because they don't have east coast casinos (to my knowledge).
If I walk into a Vegas Casino that does not own properties that are driving distance from my home, my goal is typically to try to win some money rather then accumulate comp points. I guess in that case, I should try to find a place that has 100X or 20X craps odds, and play a minimum passline bet with max odds that would allow me to commit my total session bankroll. Or similarly, find a table with the most favorable Blackjack rules, and play a single hand or maybe 2-3 hands with a large fraction of my bankroll, then walk away.
Most of the players put in $40-$100 and played for about $2.50 a spin. Most of them lost everything. One guy would load the game up to its $100 max bet and do one hand. About half the time he got his money back, most of the rest he lost it all but hit a straight or better and it's money for a quick vacation.
He hit a $100 4OAK at another bar and made a huge stink when they didn't pay him immediately.
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5. The Largest Novelty Casino Bet in History
Nowadays, you can bet on basically anything that tickles your fancy- who is going to win American Idol, when life on Mars will be discovered, who will be the next president, literally anything you can imagine. And while these so called novelty bets can be very entertaining, very few, if any, professional gamblers are long-term novelty-bet winners. However, in 1989 an unknown Welshman walked in to his local bookie and wagered £30 on a number of events to happen before the year 2000. These were his forecasts and the odds:
- Singer Cliff Richards being knighted: 4 to 1
- The Irish pop band U2 remaining as a group: 3 to 1
- The soap opera Eastenders still being aired on BBC: 5 to 1
- Neighbours still being shown on British TV: 5 to 1
- Home and Away still being an active TV show: 8 to 1
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The odds for all of this to happen were 6,479 to 1, and a couple of days into the new millennium, this lucky Welshman walked down to the local Ladbokes and cashed in £194,400 - the largest novelty bet in history. Utterly astounding, no?
4. Ashley Revell Bets Everything on One Spin
Another person to make it on our list of biggest casino bets in history is none other than Ashley Revel. His story is rather interesting. In 2004, the young Brit decided to get rid of everything he owned. He sold his car, stereo, TV, bicycle and even his clothes. Then he emptied his bank account and his poker bankroll. Altogether he managed to scrape together $135,300.And what to do when you have a bit over 100 grand? Well, as most of us would, Revell travelled to Las Vegas to bet it all on one Roulette spin. Below you can see what happened.
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Yes ladies and gentlemen, he bet it on a single bet on red and won. In fact, he walked out of the the Plaza Hotel & Casino where he was playing Roulette with a cool $270,600. Not bad, huh?
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The momentous occasion was filmed by Sky One as a reality mini-series called ‘Double or Nothing’ and it was due to this large life-changing win that Revell was dubbed a professional gambler. Yet, I strongly believe that Revell had Lady Luck’s hand on his shoulder throughout the entire course of the bet.
Mr. Revell later took on another gamble when he set up an online poker company called Poker UTD. The company later went out of business in 2012. He now owns his own iGaming Recruitment agency website which helps prospective candidates find jobs in the online gambling industry.
3. Johnny Moss Takes on a Fist Fight Bet
Poker Legend Jonny Moss, who is regarded to be the first ever winner of the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event, was once standing in a bar talking to a man who claimed that he had never lost a fight in his life. Moss got a proposition from his friends that if he could knock the man out he would get 15 to 1 on his money. It seemed like fair deal. The bet was on and Moss threw a punch at the self-claimed fighting expert.
Naturally it didn't work. All Moss got was a few broken bones and a trip to the hospital. However, when he came out of the infirmary he didn't regret his decision: '15 to 1 was too good to pass up,' Moss said.
2. Turning a Social Security Check into $1 Million With the Biggest Blackjack Bet
In 1995, a less fortunate Las Vegas resident went down to the social security office to cash in a $400 check. His wife had just kicked him out of the house and life wasn't looking too bright. So rather than sitting on a bench outside feeling all glum, what did the man do? Well, he cashed the check and headed straight for the Treasure Island Casino in Sin City to play Blackjack of course.
According to people that were at the casino that faithful day the man smelled so bad that nobody wanted to be near him, but luckily the cards don't care about odor. Thanks to his unconventional strategy - he didn't follow the basic blackjack strategy whatsoever - he managed to win $1 million.
Now one would think that this is one of those rags to riches stories you here about in the media. Sadly, it’s not. What could have been a turning point in this man's life, ended up being the entire opposite. Unfortunately, the man didn’t stop there. He kept on playing. And as we all know if you keep on playing the casino always wins in the long run. Basically to cut the long story short, in the end the poor Las Vegas Resident remained poor and ended up leaving Treasure Island Casino with an empty wallet.
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1. William Lee Bergstrom Bets it All - The Biggest Bet Ever Placed in a Casino
Casino owner, Benny Binion revolutionized gambling in Las Vegas. Before him, casinos just accepted 'small' bets and wanted to slowly but steadily capture every player's bankroll. Binion, on the other hand, let his visitors' first bet be their only limit. If you wanted to bet $100,000 on your first Blackjack hand that was totally fine, but you couldn't raise the stakes later in the session. This was something William Lee Bergstrom wanted to take advantage of.
So on a day in the mid-1980s, Austin-born William Lee Bergstrom walked into Binion's Horseshoe Casino with a suitcase containing $777,000 (the rough equivalent of $2.31 million dollars today). The man, who later became known as The Suitcase Man, went over to the Craps table and bet it all on the Don't Pass Line. He won the bet and this was the starting point of an amazing hot streak.
Bergstrom came back a while later and doubled a $590,000 wager, and later a $190,000 bet and lastly he won another $90,000. Everybody there saw that this was a player playing the rush.
Unfortunately, as many casino gamblers throughout history know, the man didn’t know when to stop. One day he stood in the lobby again - now with a suitcase containing one million dollar. He bet the money and lost. The streak was definitely over. Three months later he decided to raise the stakes once again. Bergstrom wagered what he had left in a game of Russian Roulette. He lost. The winning streak was over and he was left with nothing as a result.
Placing The Biggest Bets Ever: To Risk it All or Not to Risk it All? That is the Question
Feel inspired or just craving a great time at the casino after reading our article? Go on and place a casino bet at an online casino. But don't be foolish and bet it all at one go. Play the smart way and you might just make it in the online casino player's hall of fame.
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